2012 Republican Challengers Taking It Easy

At this time four years ago, there were already five candidates running for the Republican nomination for the Presidency: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Tommy Thompson (they announced in November), Jim Gilmore, and Sam Brownback. Today, there are no announced candidates.

There could be a few factors contributing to this. For starters, the process got started way to early for everyone last year except for Mike Huckabee, who needed every second he could to build his following. As a result, Iowa has moved the date of its caucuses back more than a month to February 6, 2012 (from January 3 last time).

There's more to it than that, however. Even if we move the time line back a month, there would have still been three candidates running on the Republican side. To better understand what's happening, we need to first look at the potential contenders. In no particular order:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich
Former Governor Mike Huckabee
Former Governor Sarah Palin
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Governor Haley Barbour
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Governor Mitch Daniels
Former Senator Rick Santorum
Senator John Thune
Representative Mike Pence
Representative Ron Paul

First and foremost, there are certain would-be candidates who probably don't want to run if one of the others end up running. Doing so would split up the political demographic they'd need to get elected. Rick Santorum, for example, isn't going to want to run if he has to compete with Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and John Thune. Sarah Palin already dominates the people he would need support from and John Thune is essentially the same candidate as Santorum, with the only difference being that John Thune hasn't been kicked out of office by voters. (Although Thune did lose his first bid for US Senate)

By that same token, Mitch Daniels is a copy-paste operation of the candidate Mitt Romney markets himself as. I think Mitt is going to run no matter what, and if he does, Governor Daniels probably isn't going to throw his name in the hat. I wish it would work the other way, but Daniels remains a relatively unknown figure in Iowa and he's not making the moves necessary to change that in the national media or by actually going to Iowa. Keep in mind that after Iowa, the candidates are going to New Hampshire, which is Mitt Romney's backyard, making the challenge even greater for Governor Daniels. If Mitt runs, Mitch won't. If Mitch runs, Mitt may still run, but he'll lose. In addition to everything else, Mitch is going to have a lot of questions to answer about the horrible education policies that have gone into effect under his watch in Indiana. This could be enough to sink him in a General Election if he won the nomination.

Also worried about Mitt Romney is Mike Pence. I predict Mike Pence will stay in the House of Representatives and wait patiently for Senator Lugar to resign - or rise through the ranks of the House of Representatives and become Speaker of the House when Boener is admitted to the D.C. psych ward. Especially if Newt Gingrich is in the race. Romney and Gingrich are going to rely on the same loyal to the establishment Republicans with Newt benefiting from conservative outsiders and Romney benefiting from defects who think Newt has gotten too old. Pence is an establishment conservative, which makes him likable to a lot of people, but not more people than Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

Newt Gingrich, I strongly believe, didn't run in 2008 because he thought (like the rest of the world) that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. There hasn't been much talk of it, but Newt Gingrich was having an affair while he was Speaker of the House and while he was leading the impeachment of President Bill Clinton for fibbing about his affair. A Gingrich-Clinton face off would have brought that out. Gingrich might be waiting to see who the Vice-Presidential nominee of President Barack Obama is. If Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden swap positions (Biden's expertise is foreign policy), Gingrich could inadvertently wind up in race against Clinton anyway. If she remains as the Secretary of State, there's enough going on in the world that Secretary Clinton won't have enough time to pester Gingrich on the campaign trail. If there's a chance Hillary is on the 2012 ticket with President Obama, Gingrich won't run.

Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi is a former Chairman of the RNC and a more successful one than Mike Steele, who has been one disaster after another. If he runs, Haley Barbour is going to be a strong contender if Iowans know who he is. Governor Barbour, like Newt Gingrich, can make a strong case that he helped save the GOP from imploding in the 1990s. However, unlike Gingrich, Governor Barbour can make a very strong case for his conservative evangelical background and policies. This means Barbour will be able to compete for voters with not only Gingrich - but Palin, Huckabee, Santorum, and Thune, as well. From my observations, Barbour has been spending the most amount of time in Iowa of any of the potential 2012 candidates. If 3 or 4 of these 5 candidates run and Barbour continues to be comparatively unknown, I doubt he will run.

We have now explained why several candidates haven't yet announced. This leaves:

Former Governor Mike Huckabee
Former Governor Sarah Palin
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Senator John Thune
Representative Ron Paul

I hate Ron Paul. The guy is just a moron. So there's no point in analyzing him.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee
Former Governor Sarah Palin
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Senator John Thune

Let's talk about Senator John Thune. I personally expected Thune to be spending a LOT of time in Iowa because, let's face it, he IS interested and although 2010 was an election year for him, he doesn't have a challenger. Additionally, he managed to build up a 12 million dollar war chest with no responsibilities to spend it anywhere he doesn't want to. Shockingly, Thune spent the majority of his time in Washington, DC instead. Thune's strategy appears to be framing. Thune has spent a tremendous amount of time offering amendments, proposing new and very conservative legislation (like spending freezes on all non-security items). Essentially, he's backing up his platform and defining himself with the legislation he's pushing. Thune's problem is that he made a few bad votes that I suspect he would take back if he could. This could lead to a conflict with the Tea Parties.

All's not lost for Thune, though. For starters, the Iowa tea party groups are not as strong as they are in other areas. Granted, they're not as pathetic as the Northwest Indiana groups led by Faith Jones and Mark Leyva... but that's an extreme example of worthlessness. The Iowa groups are still something to worry about, but they can't make a candidate and they won't be able to break more than one or two candidates. This is Thune's opening. Although Thune has made a couple of bad votes; relative to Mitt Romney pushing ObamaCare in Massachusetts before it became known as ObamaCare, Huckabee increasing taxes and pushing for free-tuition for illegals, and Mitch Daniels' aggressive infrastructure spending; Thune could actually be 3rd or 4th on the Tea Party hit lists, preventing any sort of nagging problems on the trail until it's too late for the Tea Party radicals to stop him. However, in order for him to get in the race, Thune actually needs one or two other people with worse records to run against him as cannon fodder.

Mike Huckabee probably isn't sure if he even wants to run. He has a pretty sweet gig right now. He's set for life and he has millions of adoring fans despite letting rapists and murderers out of prison for them to continue their reign of terror on innocent victims. Running for President again means risking everything he has. Additionally, Huckabee 2012 will be nothing like the fairy tale that was Huckabee 2008. Consider this. In 2008, Huckabee entered the race as a nobody and he fought the system to win Iowa and nearly upset the entire Republican Party system. Huckabee's biggest logistical problem in 2007 and 2008 was that he couldn't raise money, but at the time, supporters said that was because he was a nobody and an outsider who couldn't get the big donors before they committed to other candidates.

If Huckabee runs for 2012, he's going into the race as a front runner, if not THE front runner. Nobody has any expectations for Third Tier Candidates. When Huckabee would raise just $100,000 in a quarter, nobody cared because he was a nobody in 2007. As a front runner, on the other hand, everybody has very specific expectations. If Huckabee raises just $2 million in a quarter, he's going to fail to meet a very VERY important expectation of a front runner. And when front runners fail to meet expectations, they don't stay front runners.

To make a long story short, Huckabee's political action committee (Huck PAC) has underwhelmed a lot of people. It's strength has been in phone banking for the candidates it's supported. Although having an in-house phone banking solution is definitely nice, phone calls are not as fungible of a resource as cash. Unless Huckabee magically solves his fundraising issues, it doesn't matter if he runs or not because he won't win.

Now, what happens to Huckabee will by far have the greatest impact of Governor-turned-quitter Sarah Palin. For the life of me, I don't get the attraction to this woman as a politician. Maybe I would like her more as the Chairwoman of the GOP, but she scares the piss out of me as any politician I can think of, including Ron Paul. At least with corrupt politicians, you know it's in their best interest not to destroy the country. But when you have an irrational idiot immovable in her ideology of idiocy, the safety of the country takes a back seat to right vs. wrong. And judging by the rhetoric of Sarah Palin, I'm honestly scared to death of the idea of this woman starting a nuclear war. Seriously, I can't think of one time she has even hinted at the consideration of showing restraint.

With that said, people love her... moreso than even Mike Huckabee's supporters - who seemed to be convinced he's the 3rd coming of Jesus Christ. Every time that Huckabee falters and loses a supporter, that person is more than likely going to join Cult of Sarah. For Huckabee, there's no getting them back, either. So Huckabee needs to seriously consider whether or not he should run again if Palin runs.

I'll be shocked if Palin doesn't run. She's pretty much the Hillary Clinton of 2004-2006. Everyone has been expecting her to run for so long that she almost doesn't have a choice. The only other things she might have done instead were fulfill her commitment to the people of Alaska and finish her term as Governor or run for Chairwoman of the Republican Party. Although she still could run for Chairwoman (and win), she's showing no interest in that at all.

What's she waiting for? Well, let's face it. Nobody wants to be the first one to arrive at the party. The same can be said of Mitt Romney, although I suspect he's probably a little worried about the prospect of running against Newt Gingrich. Additionally, Mitt wasted a LOT of his personal money the last time around and got nothing to show for it except the reputation of being a bit of a prick. Mitt is in the same boat as John Thune. He needs more people to run against him. The best case scenario for Mitt Romney is that Newt Gingrich stays out of the race and Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and John Thune divide the people who beat Romney last year. Romney is essentially positioning himself to be the survivor of the demolition derby, which was how McCain won in 2008. If 2012 doesn't yield a lot of conservative candidates, Mitt might just sit 2012 out.

This leaves Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. To be honest... I know nothing about this guy besides the fact that he's a man and a Governor from the state of Minnesota. His name is being thrown around a lot, but never about the things he's done. That troubles me and suggests he's the George Allen of 2012 - the guy that the establishment wants but people know nothing about, but because his name is thrown around constantly, people just assume he's the guy - and therefore vote for him.

Wow, that's a long post.

My message to Faith Jones

Recently, I got an e-mail from Meetup telling me that Faith Jones had a new post, which was sent out to everyone on the list of the Northwest Indiana Patriots. Her message pretty much confirmed everything I've been saying for the past few months. I'm responding to that post.

For the 6-10 people posting on this site, we might as well exchange email addresses and converse amongst ourselves. I can save the money I spend on this site, and give MORE to the candidates I think will make a difference in Indiana, and in the White House.

Oh, thank you, Faith, for confirming this for me. 10-12 has been the size of the NWIP's recent rallies. Yeah, sure your supporters are claiming the number is closer to 30-50, but the people counting are probably the same people who do Mark Leyva's secret polling.

There are many reasons why there are only this small hand full of people left, but you illustrated one of them with this e-mail. You're a jerk. Seriously, this was a demeaning e-mail. Allow me to make an observation. Kind of like Leyva, you're a jerk to politicians and politicians (except outgoing Democrat Commissioner Bob Harper) want nothing to do with either of you. When people send you constructive criticism in private, you respond by calling them racist, sexist, corrupt, or whatever else you think you can get away with. Coincidentally, anyone who wants to offer advice wants nothing to do with you.

I'm writing this for the public, in part, because I want everyone to be able to see what it is I wrote before you e-mail your six friends and tell them to call the Wizard irrelevant names.

"I" pay for this site. I have to question my own "fiscal responsibility/" What's the purpose of this site if not to post what you have learned about "business as usual" I was thinking I would come to this site to LEARN more from "YOU", the "concerned citizens" and thought I would come to this site to see everyone was "MAD AS HELL" about this bill!!

Except that when members post things that others disagree with, they are called a bigot, homophone, idiot, spammer, troll, or corrupt insider by other members. In other words, more jerky behavior. I actually wrote about this! Why in the world would anyone want to be a member of this group when its members act more immature than a group of stereotypical high school cheer leaders?

T-I-N-F-O-I-L ... TINFOIL! HATS! Yay! Go us!

Speaking of which, what happened to that young man who gave that "Mad As Hell" speech at one of your early events? Oh yeah, you ran him out of town, too! Perhaps this is a little petty but "run-on" "sentence."

Have you questioned your elected officials why this extension wasn't permanent? Have you questioned them on "what's their plan" for tax reform? Have you asked them why a "SINGLE ISSUE" bill wasn't voted on? A straight up or down vote on JUST one issue?

Considering how many hours you've spent at your "day job" surfing the internet, I'm kind of surprised you don't appreciate wasteful spending. It pays your salary. I'm also kind of surprised that you haven't found the answer to this yet. There are a lot of members of Congress. A lot of them are Democrats. They would probably like the extensions to continue for lower and middle class families. For the upper-class, they would like the rates to go back up. If you ask, they will explain their point of view in detail. The problem is that you don't "ask" anything. You tell them what you want and don't care about anything else. Standard jerk behavior. Granted, I think the tax cuts should be made permanent across the board, but that's irrelevant. My point is that NOTHING can be made permanent because there are so many different points of view that any and all legislation must be done through compromise. The time table is one way to get a few more crucial votes to at least extend the tax cuts. Without it, the bill will fail. As a result, even people who want the bill to be permanent will vote to limit it to two years because two more years of tax cuts is better than it abruptly ending. The same goes for all the pork that's attached to it.

Besides that, as such an outspoken advocate of the Constitution, I'm surprised you're even taking the word "permanent" seriously. It's a gimmick word to get people like you riled up. The only way to make the tax code permanent is with a Constitutional Amendment, and even that's not permanent because another Amendment could overturn it. It's even easier with normal legislation, which is what is used to determine our tax code.

If you could stop talking and start listening for a few minutes, you might be able to figure this stuff out for yourself.

What have you done to keep your fellow neighbors informed? This site is not a social club!! We are to be "Pro-active" citizens.

Again, talking and not listening. Faith, why not try practicing what you preach? Let people be what they want to be or let them stand where they want to stand? There are 300+ people on your list. Guess what - you ticked off most of them a long time ago. People who would have once attended one of your rallies in the pouring rain would now rather stay at home and watch Fox News. Whenever you talk to people, you talk down to them as though they're not doing enough. The truth of the matter is that you should be happy if they simply go out and vote.

Again, Mark Leyva has the same problem. He, like you, is convinced that other people need to do more than what they are willing to do. When they don't do what the two of you want, you throw temper tantrums. Unfortunately, you've been voting Democrat for so long that you must not be able to understand that the conservatives you're dealing with aren't the kind of people who will sit down with, let alone cave in to, an elderly woman behaving like a three year old. They owe you NOTHING and if you're going to continue behaving like this, NOTHING is all you're going to get.

Thank you to the concerned citizens that are posting. To all the others...I ask: Are you watching Monday night football? I absolutely see no reason to pay for this site if we aren't here to educate one another and "WAKE THE PEOPLE UP".

If someone tells Faith Jones or any of the 6 people who are still posting that they aren't allowed to smoke because it's a disgusting habit, they become enraged. But when their incompetent leader belittles people because they're watching Monday Night Football, nothing. Faith Jones, we're not all liberal, European-loving pansies. We're Americans, damn it and we love American football! If you had one, microscopic shred of credibility left with anyone, you lost it if they saw this.

Here's an idea. You are prepared to pull money from the site and donate it to the Democr - oops- I mean candidates you want to win. Why not pull your time away from Northwest Indiana Patriots all together and give that to the candidate of your choice, too? Assuming there's anyone foolish enough to want you in their corner. Your failures as an organizer over the past year are proven by the failures and resulting irrelevance of the Northwest Indiana Patriots today.

If you step away now, there's a chance someone might step up, rename the group, fix your mistakes, and salvage something that's actually useful to the conservative movement in Northwest Indiana rather than being another embarrassment to that movement. Don't worry, it's not going to be me. I'm too old, too busy with my family, and it would probably require me to stop watching high school, college, and pro football. I do know this. Even if nobody takes it over, it will be better for conservatives up here than if this failing group continues to humiliate conservatives in all levels of involvement in the process.

You wouldn't even have to apologize to all the conservatives you've helped double cross, stab in the back, or otherwise attack over the past year and a half. I think I can safely say that stepping down would be enough of an apology for most of us.

Dealing With Leyva

The Post Tribune's Jerry Davich sat down at the home of our repeatedly failed Republican congressional candidate for a one-on-one interview.

Will (or should) Mark Leyva run again against powerhouse Pete?

In the article, Davich tells us that he contacted Levya before the election and Leyva told him: "The polling numbers show me just under six points down and a nine-point undecided spread."

At least now we know it was Leyva himself spreading this lie.

When asked why he lost, Leyva responded that the lack of voting machines in the southern part of Lake County, a clueless local media, and the lack of support from the disorganized Republican Party in the region.

It's not the media that's clueless in this equation.  Mark Leyva has been running for Congress, not making any ground, for a decade.  During that time, Leyva has failed to learn some fundamentals to winning a campaign.  First, whose support do you need to win any election - especially as an underdog?  The local media and your political party.  Who did Leyva blame for his loss?  The local media and the political party.

Is the region's GOP really disorganized?  Well, Republicans had a relatively good election night here.  As the Chairwoman of the Lake County GOP is going to be quick to point out, Lake County elected it's first Republican to county-wide office in a long time.  In addition to that, Lake County Democrats are beginning to jump ship and come into the Republican fold.  This doesn't happen for disorganized parties.

In fact, the reason why Leyva blames them is because the chairs of the five county Republican Parties in IN-01 rejected a DEMAND for funding from Mark Leyva that came in the form of a threatening and insulting e-mail directlyy from the congressional candidate.  I'm not exactly the most tactful Wizard in the world, but even I know not to bite the hand that feeds me... or at least would feed me if I wasn't a fatheaded, good-for-nothing jerk of a politician.

With regards to the voting machine problem, the southern part of the county is sparsely populated enough not to need the machines.  If there was corruption, I assure you that one of Indiana's Secretaries of State over the last decade would have stepped in and tackled the problem.  Believe me, if a Secretary of State could expose corruption, he would do it in a heartbeat to bolster his own political stock.  The image of a corruption fighter is a lot more valuable than anything Pete Visclosky and Lake County Democrats could offer a state-wide politician, especially a Republican.

And the media?   How can anyone be so stupid as to insult the media for not giving you enough time when you're sitting down with the top political reporter for the most widely distributed newspaper in the area to talk about the potential of your next campaign?

Leyva has one person to blame for his political failures.  Himself.

Then again, I'm sure some of you will say this was a victory for Leyva.  He only lost by 22% this time.